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So let's see ... we've got the death of Flash's main rival (or, at least, it's been left for dead). We've got a vector-based animation product acquisition. We've got a rumored Flash-esque technology that will be built into the core Longhorn OS as well as IE. We've got potential spite directed at Macromedia. We've got a patent dispute that will soon mean that it'll be a relative hassle to include (let's call it) third-party content inside the market share-dominant IE browser. I could be way off base and have likely adopted an X-Files mentality here, but I'm going to assume for the purposes of this discussion that Microsoft is indeed developing what it hopes will be a Flash killer. With that admittedly lengthy buildup out of the way, here are five reasons I, as a long-time Flash user, am not worried (and why you shouldn't be either):
1) Why does Flash need to be killed? OK, so that sounds like more of a question than a reason, but bear with me. Did I miss something here? Is Flash such an awful technology that is must die? Is it so loathed by developers that they sit around and pray that something comes along and puts Flash out of their collective misery? Uh, no. Despite its problems, Flash is a mature and, more importantly, entrenched technology that's used happily by a whole lot of designers and developers in both online and offline projects. It's cross-platform (Linux included). It's cross-browser. Hell, it's even cross-media. Someone's going to have to come up with something awfully good to make folks rush to delete Flash from their hard drives.
2) 2006, baby. 2006. At best, Longhorn is two years away, and four years out at worst. A lot can happen between now and then. I'm pretty sure I'll be working on a G9 with Mac OS XX by then, with a flying car tethered to the fire hydrant in my front yard and a robot maid named Rosie. I don't think Macromedia is going to sit idly by for all those years and let Flash wither on the vine just because they don't have a main competitor anymore. At least, I'm guessing that Macromedia won't rest on Flash's laurels. If they do let Flash languish, and it isn't a vastly different, more evolved and better product by then, it'll deserve whatever might be lying in wait.
3) Haven't we been here before? Call me crazy, but Flash has already weathered a few assassination attempts -- even one from Microsoft -- yet still remains king. In the late '90s MS had its own Flash killer, Liquid Motion, which itself was killed off in early 2000. All it takes is to read this review from the time and you'll see why Liquid Motion is no longer with us. Proprietary, kludgey, and with a penchant for disgusting results. Sounds like a winner! And do I really need to mention again that the most recent Flash killer, LiveMotion, has been left to rot? All this attempted Flashicide sometimes serves as an excellent reminder of what's really good about Flash. And the fact that so many products have evolved as a complement, rather than a competitor, to Flash and the SWF format is an even better reminder of what Macromedia has done very right to date.
4) Quick. Name how many "creative" MS apps you use. I'll wait. Any minute now.... I'm sure it'll take a while to put together such an extensive list. Now, I don't know about you, but I get to my desk every day, fire up Paint, create beautiful images with its advanced toolset, switch over to FrontPage to generate clean, unbloated and standards-compliant HTML pages for those images to live in, and call it a day. I hope that little scenario has underscored the fact that MS has exactly zero credibility as a creator and/or purveyor of creative software, and the acquisition of Creature House isn't likely to change that well-earned reputation. I just can't see a scenario where all the Flash designers out there migrate en masse to a new, Microsoft-branded Flash replacement, can you? As an aside, one can only hope that MS decides to do for Creature House what it did for game maker Bungie: leave it alone and let it do what it does (for the most part). Still waiting on Halo for the Mac like Bungie/MS promised when it was acquired, though.
5) OK, so MS manages to pull it off. So what? Look, let's get some perspective here. If MS somehow does end up killing (or, at least, severely maiming) Flash, I'll adapt. So will a lot of other designers. We might use Sparkle (which will probably have a predictably crippled Mac version and accompanying plugin, considering the antitrust hot water MS is still in, especially in Europe). Or we might use something else. Or we might move into other areas of creative production. Or, we might even change vocations if we're just fed up. People adapt with the times, and even MS killing Flash won't change that.
And in the end...
Whether or not Sparkle is aiming for Flash, it'll have a tough road towards acceptance, especially amongst designers. In any event, there's a whole lot o' waiting to do before any real questions get answered, so, as usual, the best advice is to watch closely and enjoy the soap opera as it unfolds. And whatever happens, don't get too squirrely about the outcome -- life's too short not to roll with the punches.
When not fleeing the paparazzi or spending his vast fortune associated with the fame and notoriety of being a DMN contributor, Kevin Schmitt can be found with his eyeballs glued to his computer screen, attempting to use some of the hardware and software he rants so incoherently about. An award-winning animator, artist and multimedia producer, he is currently a freelance designer located in the enormously bustling megalopolis of Waynesboro, VA. Whether you're looking to "give him the business" of either the figurative or literal type, feel free to drop him a line. He's ready to believe you!
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